Where tipsters are going wrong? They’re not pinning a probability on the chance of something happening and you’re sort of saying, well I don’t understand probability, I’m not interested in that. That’s fine because that’s not necessarily your job. If you’re receiving advice from a tipster, what they should be able to do is tell you if there’s value there, and they should be able to nail that value for you as well, so one of the things that I’ve learned over a very long period of time is you can find value. The problem you have now is this variability.
I show you a strategy that I started fairly recently. I know I was betting to value because I’ve modeled this particular sport unbelievably well, so I can nail the chance of something occurring on this. The chance of a win on this sport like down to the nth degree down to 400 decimal places just like saturation there but basically I know that there’s a certain amount of sort of wiggle room that I have to have within that particular model so it could be that I’d perform this action but because of the chance that I’m betting against has a certain amount of variability in it may go against me in the short term so what you actually see on this graph is it starts off I Cameron if it was positive or negative immediately but basically it goes through a long negative run and then suddenly all of those results start to come in and it swings positive now the longer I run this model the more I bet to this particular model the more money I’ll make over the long term but I have to accept that it’s going to have ups and downs swings all over the place so this is why when tipsters tip a horse or a pundit says something about a football match or anybody writes any article about anything you should nominate a price at which you’re willing to back or laugh you should say this is the chance that it has of winning this particular race this particular event and therefore I will not back it below this amount or I will back it above this amount because you’re accounting for that ability.
If you take your margins too tight then you could go bust because the market will swing up and down against you, but over the long term, it basically ends up positive. If you have very small margins and it swings against you, you could blow your bank completely so when a tipster tips something that they should be saying it’s never going to happen. I can tell you that but what they should be saying is I like Manchester United tonight and I think they’ve got a 75% chance of winning and therefore I’m willing to back them above this price, or, if we see a horse that comes out, he can say, I like this horse.
It likes the ground the going is going to suit it today it’s stepping up in Tripp and it should have improved from its last outing then what should happen is they shouldn’t say and therefore it’s dick a tenner on it they should say and therefore I think it’s got an 80% chance of winning this match they’re at this match this brace but the markets pricing it only at a 50% chance and therefore I think this represents a great bet, but, of course, that’s not going to happen. It’s not immediate enough. It’s not thrilling enough. It’s not exciting enough. People won’t do that. If I went on, I could probably go on to a particular channel of some sort and say to them this would be the chance of this occurring it does not make for great television however if you go on and say oh yeah you know I really fancy this one it’s the price is crashing in, it’s stepping up and trip and therefore you know I’m gonna have my money on this horse, that’s exciting and entertaining and that’s what drives people to place a bet within the industry it’s called bet stimulus. That’s what people are trying to do.
On the sell side of the industry, from a bookmaker, a sports book or whatever, they’re trying to stimulate you to place a bet but what they won’t do is actually give you the chance this thing occurring, because if they did, you’d realize that you were going to lose money over the long term. Anyhow I think that you know what I would love to see as I’d love to see betting tipsters and punters and all of the people within in industry actually won their predictions with a percentage probability, however I don’t think that is ever going to happen simply because a lot of people are going on gut feel they don’t have a model in place, and therefore they don’t know where the value is because yes it may win but it may have wanted a bad price or yes it has. You know it could win but it could win at a good price and there’s a big difference between the two because I focus on price price price price price price price price price price that’s what I’m most interested in.
It’s no good winning frequently if I’m not getting value out of that because over the long term my P&L; is going to head off in the wrong direction. But, if I can get a decent price on something then I definitely will win money over the long term so the next time you place a bet that’s where you focus on. Focus on the value, focus on the price. If you don’t think of the price is big enough, and you know whatever you’re doing suggests that that is the case, then you simply don’t place of it. you’re under no obligation to place a bet and to try and make money. You can just wait for the right price to come along, and when you see it, you just jump on it and take full advantage of it. That’s what I do. It made me a lot of money over a long period of time and you can do the same, so the only way to profit in the long term is to know what chance something has of happening and then to find odds that represent value. Any professional punter tipster or pundit should be able to give you that particular price if they don’t then they don’t know what the value will be and their tip is worthless